Basra - And The Left's Excitable Sadr Rattling

PROBABLY best seen as yet another manifestation of what I described in early March as Post Surge Derangement Syndrome (PSDS), the anti-war left has returned to Iraq - like so many Wilfred Burchetts sniffing around to discover or manufacture an American defeat. The military campaign in Iraq had been off the front pages of the New York Times, other comparably denialist newspapers and out of the MSM generally because of the unmistakeable success of the American Surge. The last several days, however, have seen the re-emergence of old-fashioned defeatism and Haw Haw headlines following the return to prominence and arms of Moqtada al-Sadr. Simplified reports appeared about Iraqi Army defections, a polity out of control and, of course, the frailty of the Surge. Liberals loved the smell of al-Mahdi in the morning. Smelt like ... victory. Then Moqtada went and sued for peace. That makes John Quiggin, for one, livid - with the "pro-war blogosphere."

It won't be the last we hear of al-Sadr and the piratical matrix of militias, theocrats and criminals associated with him. But Nouri al-Maliki's decision to inaugurate an Iraqified surge of his own in Basra may constitute precisely the strategic simpatico, between Iraq and the United States, that's needed for converting Surge muscularity into enduring political will. As a famous Briton might have said - and probably not from an air base retreat - Operation Knights' Charge is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

Or, rather, it could be - especially if three factors can be brought into play. The first is consistency from Prime Minister al-Maliki, who now has to demonstrate that an apparent desire to emulate, country-wide, the pacification of Anbar province and greater Baghdad is permanent policy and not something driven solely by the electoral ambitions of his own party. Second, the British should now shore up Iraqi resolve by deciding to get back into the arena they precipitously abandoned. Leaving aside the military advantages of such a move, it would also strengthen the case for Iraq's centrality in the war on terrorism - at a time when that case has become the ideological plaything for all but one of the three American presidential candidates. Finally, given the emboldening effect of anti-Bush agitprop and mendacious journalism, it would help if some observers grew up. If only they were as serious about liberty and peace as they are about "global warming."